Is there still a potential we could see another Columbia SC housing bubble? A top Federal Reserve official says yes.
A mortgage market bubble in part caused the 2007-2009 financial crisis and Great Recession from which the world's largest economy is still recovering. In response, the Fed has depressed interest rates and is buying $85 billion in assets each month, including $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
But citing rising year-over-year Columbia SC housing prices, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher warns that the central bank's hyper-accommodative policies could be inflating dangerous asset price bubbles.
Fisher said, "We have to be watchful and realize there has historically been an era of the Fed over-stimulating since the Great Depression."
Mortgage Rates to Blame For Columbia SC Housing Recovery Slowdown
Home resales rose in August and median prices were up 14.7 percent over the previous 12 months nationwide, according to the National Association of Realtors, although other data have suggested a sharp rise in mortgage rates was responsible for a dent in the Columbia SC housing recovery.
The deal approved in Washington to reopen the government after a 16-day shutdown resolves no fundamental differences on spending and taxes that divide Democrats and Republicans. But it also leaves open the possibility of another government shutdown – and potentially another debt crisis – early next year.
Fisher said, "kicking the can down the road for a few months will not solve the pathology of fiscal misfeasance that undermines our economy and threatens our future."
Fisher often blames lawmakers' inaction on resolving long-term U.S. fiscal imbalances for dragging down the economy and hurting the Columbia SC housing market. Though he has also been a vocal critic of the Fed's massive bond-buying stimulus. He said, "continued Fed bond-buying could actually make matters worse, if the U.S. central bank is seen as an agent of financial recklessness."
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Columbia SC home prices improved year-over-year for the 18th straight month in August, though the arrival of housing's usual "off-season" brought negligible monthly growth.
Home prices nationwide increased 12.4 percent on a yearly basis in August. On a monthly basis, prices were up only 0.9 percent.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 11.2 percent over August 2012 and 1.0 percent over July 2013. Again, no states experienced depreciation.
Columbia SC Home Prices Slowed in August
After a strong run, the rate of Columbia SC home prices appreciating slowed in August. In addition to normal seasonality, the recent sharp rise in mortgage rates off their historic lows was a clear driver behind the slowdown.
Anand Nallathambi, CoreLogic's president and CEO says "For September, the company's Pending HPI indicates prices (including distressed sales) will gain 12.7 percent on a yearly basis and 0.2 percent on a monthly basis, continuing the slowing trend. Removing distressed sales, Columbia SC home prices are poised to rise 12.2 percent year-over-year and 0.7 percent month-over-month.
Meanwhile, Redfin reported another slip in homebuyer demand in August, with both home tours and offers declining.
While homebuyer demand typically falls from July to August—signaling the end of the normally active summer season—this year’s drop in demand was more drastic than usual, says Redfin analyst Ellen Haberle.
Looking ahead to the rest of 2013, Redfin is keeping its eye on mortgage rate trends, which will likely play an even bigger role. "If rates were to spike above five percent, many buyers who have been rushing to find a home while rates are low may step out of the market temporarily, which would trigger a sharp drop in demand," Haberle concluded. "On the other hand, if rates remain stable, we expect demand will flatten this autumn."
Rates are now expected to remain flat or drift a bit lower since the Fed announced it was not yet ready to cut back on its Bond purchase program. This could help Columbia SC home prices as we head into the winter months.
Columbia SC home sales in August reached their highest point in more than six years, but don't expect this upward trend to continue.
That's the word from the National Association of Realtors, which reports sales of single-family homes, town homes and condominiums rose 1.7 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million. That's the highest pace since February of 2007.
"Rising mortgage interest rates pushed more buyers to close deals" in August, said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
Monthly Columbia SC home sales are likely to be uneven in the months ahead from several market frictions. Tight inventory is limiting choices in many areas, higher mortgage interest rates mean affordability isn't as favorable as it was, and restrictive mortgage lending standards are keeping some otherwise qualified buyers from completing a purchase.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke cited higher mortgage interest rates as one reason why the Fed decided now wasn't the time for the central bank to start tapering its bond purchases.
The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from 4.37 percent in July to 4.46 percent in August, the highest since July of 2011, according to Freddie Mac.
The good news for the Columbia SC housing market is that the national median price for existing homes was $212,000 in August. That's up 14.7 percent from August 2012, the biggest year-over-year price jump since October of 2005. Also, foreclosures and short sales accounted for only 12 percent of sales in August, the lowest share since NAR started tracking them in October of 2008.
Real Estate Expert Brendon DeSimone appeared on Fox Business News recently and talked about the future of the housing market, and what he thinks is going to happen with mortgage rates.
The Columbia SC housing market is still not where it was during its pre-recession peak, but buyer demand seems to be closing the gap.
According to Zillow.com, July’s Columbia SC housing update showed the median sale price for the month roughly 2 percent from the local market’s highwater mark set in July 2005.
For more updates on Columbia SC housing, click the Columbia SC Real Estate link to your right under Columbia SC Real Estate Categories.
If all the warnings about what cigarette smoke does to your health aren't enough, consider what it's doing to your Columbia SC house, especially when the time comes to sell it and move on.
In a survey of real estate agents, about 44 percent of those surveyed said smoking will reduce a home's value by some measure. Of these, one-third said the reduced value may range from 10 to 19 percent; another one-third said it could lower the value by 20 to 29 percent.
That is, of course, if the homes find buyers at all. A whopping 88 percent of the agents said that in any case, it's more difficult to sell homes where the residents are smokers.
Third Hand Smoke in Your Columbia SC House
In addition to the possible lower value being placed on a Columbia SC house that has, or had, a smoker, another factor to consider is something becoming known as "Third-Hand Smoke."
We're all too familiar with the concept of second-hand smoke — that's the mixture of exhaled smoke and the other ick that enters the atmosphere from the end of a lit cigarette. Health effects aside, it's a concern that has manifested itself in real estate terms, in apartment and condo buildings where residents find themselves inadvertently inhaling it via shared ventilation and heating systems and seepage through walls. Some landlords, including some of the nation's largest ones, have banned smoking because of it.
You may soon develop the same kind of familiarity with third-hand smoke, which is a term that's just starting to make its way into popular usage. Third-hand smoke is what lingers after second-hand smoke has cleared out — the noxious residue of cigarette gases and particles that settles on carpets, drapes, dust and other surfaces of a room.
Third-hand smoke has long been suspected as a carcinogen, but smoking could cost home sellers dearly, not only health-wise, but when it comes time to sell their home.
"Tobacco-specific nitrosamines, some of the chemical compounds in third-hand smoke, are among the most potent carcinogens there are," according to Lara Gundel, a Berkeley Lab scientist. "They stay on surfaces, and when those surfaces are clothing or carpets, the danger to children is especially serious."
These days, when you sell your Columbia SC house, you may be required to sign a mold-disclosure form, as well as disclosure of any knowledge you may have about the presence of radon, asbestos and lead paint in the house. Perhaps one day in the not-too-distant future, you may have to sign a disclosure about smoking as well. Stay tuned as more develops on third-hand smoke.