Over the past month or two, it looked as though the Columbia SC housing recovery was beginning to soften. According to an article at RisMedia, the results of Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey for August found that even though the jobs market has improved this year, consumers are still concerned about their income.
Columbia SC Housing Recovery to be Slow and Steady
The number of people who feel now is a good time to buy a home has dropped for the second consecutive month to 64% which is 6% less than in June. This has led to Fannie Mae's predictions that 2015 may not be a breakout year for a Columbia SC housing recovery after all.
As of now, gains in the jobs market this year haven't yet translated into sufficient increases in income to generate increased consumer confidence for buying a home, even though interest rates are still hovering around all-time lows.
Those who believe that prices will go up during the next year remains steady at 42%, but the numbers who think prices may go down increased to 9%. However, the number of respondents who think interest rates will go up during the next year dropped by four percentage points to 50%.
Just 64% of respondents thought it was a good time to buy a property, equaling the all-time low, and at the same time those who think now is a good time to sell also fell to 38%. The percentage of respondents who thought it would be easier to get a mortgage increased by just 1%.
The percentage of people who said they would buy if they were going to move dropped to 64%, while those who thought they would rent increased to 32%. This is the narrowest gap between these two percentages for more than a year.
Some 44% of respondents to Fannie Mae's survey expect their personal finances to improve over the next year, but those who think their household income is higher than it was a year ago dropped to 23%, a full 5% drop. The percentage of respondents who feel that household expenses have increased over the last 12 months remained steady at 36%.
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The Columbia SC housing recovery should regain its footing, but at the same time, faces a number of challenges. This, according to a new survey by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University.
The State of the Nation's Housing report released recently says tight credit, high unemployment and mounting student loan debt among young Americans are moderating growth and keeping Millennials and other first-time homebuyers out of the Columbia SC housing market.
The Columbia SC housing recovery is following the path of the broader economy and as long as the economy remains on the path of slow, but steady improvement, housing should follow suit.
Columbia SC Housing Tough for Young People
While Columbia SC housing saw notable increases in construction, home prices, and sales last year, household growth has yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession. The report went on to say that young Americans, saddled with student loan debt and falling incomes, continue to live with their parents. About 2.1 million more adult children in their 20s lived with their parents last year, and student loan balances increased by $114 billion, the survey said.
Still, given the sheer volume of young adults coming of age, the number of households in their 30s should increase by 2.7 million over the next decade, which should boost demand for new housing, according to the report.
Daniel McCue, research manager of the Joint Center, said the large Millennial generation will make their presence felt in the owner-occupied market just as they already have in the apartment market, where demand is strong, rents are rising, construction is robust, and property values increased by double digits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013.
One key to realizing the Millennials' potential in the Columbia SC housing market, is for the economy to grow to the point where their incomes start to rise. Also, the report noted that by 2025, minorities will comprise 36 percent of all U.S. households and 46 percent of those aged 25–34, accounting for nearly half of the typical first-time homebuyer market. The report also highlights the ongoing affordability challenge facing the country, as cost burdens remain near record levels and over 35 percent of Americans spend more than 30 percent of their income for housing.
The situation is particularly grim for renters, where 50 percent are cost-burdened and 28 percent are severely cost-burdened — meaning they spend more than half of their income for housing, researchers found.
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There is doubt circulating as to whether the Columbia SC housing recovery will continue. Mortgage applications are down and refinancing is down dramatically since interest rates started rising throughout the summer. A lot of banks are laying off workers in the mortgage refinancing departments in anticipation of slower refinance applications into the future.
In a recent CNBC interview, Anthony Chan, Chase Private Client Chief Economist, says he doesn't think these things are indicative of a slowdown in the housing recovery.
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Fannie Mae still believes that higher mortgage rates won't hurt the Columbia SC housing recovery. After looking at mortgage rates going back to 1990, Fannie Mae's researchers came to the surprising conclusion that while rising rates were likely to hurt the number of home sales, they had virtually no impact on actual home prices.
The study, which compared historic mortgage rates with home price and sales data, focused on two time periods when rates soared. The first, from October 1993 through December 1994, when rates rose to 9.2% from 6.8% and the second from October 1998 to May 2000 when they climbed to 8.5% from 6.7%.
During the rate spike in the early 1990s, home prices leveled off, then fell only slightly. During the second rate climb, there was no impact on homes prices at all.
Common Theme of Columbia SC Housing Recovery
The common theme that seems to keep the Columbia SC housing recovery from being adversely affected by higher rates is, sellers are reluctant to lower prices, and buyers tend to find ways to stretch their resources, often switching to adjustable rate in lieu of higher fixed rates.
In addition, rates and home prices both track economic trends. When the economy is hot, rates rise and so do hiring and income, which means more people are able to buy homes and pay higher prices for them.
Fannie's research may shine some light on what will happen to the Columbia SC housing recovery in the months ahead, but some housing experts are skeptical.
With rates for 30-year mortgages spiking by more than a percentage point to 4.51% since early May, some economists say rates will most definitely have an impact on home prices and, ultimately, the Columbia SC housing recovery.
While higher interest rates may affect the property a buyer buys, it usually does not prevent them from buying altogether. That thinking doesn't mesh with some economists who believe the dynamics of the Columbia SC housing recovery is that it affects home sales first and then inventory increases. When supplies go up, prices must go down.
Time will tell whether these higher rates will have any adverse effect on the Columbia SC housing recovery. We'd love to know… if you're in the market to buy a home, do higher rates cause you to pull out of the market, or just change the type and price home you're considering? Leave us your comments on this below…
Did Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hurt the Columbia SC housing recovery when he said recently that he thought the housing market is strong enough to stand on its own feet. If that was the message Bernanke was trying to deliver for the U.S. economy, investors seemed to have received it loud and clear.
Did Bernanke kill the Columbia SC housing recovery with his recent remarks? Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow has the answer…
What do you think? Do you think Bernanke spooked the Columbia SC housing recovery with his recent comments? Tell us what you think using the comment box. Your email address will never be published at this site for your privacy protection.