Year-end data from CoreLogic shows home prices fell by 4.7 percent over 2011. It marks the fifth consecutive year the company has recorded an annual decline in residential property values.
CoreLogic performed a separate calculation, which illustrates just how big an impact distressed sales are having on home prices. The company excluded all short sale and REO transactions from 2011 and found that when the distress factor is taken out, prices declined by just 0.9 percent.
Commenting on the company’s latest results, Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist said, “While overall prices declined by almost 5 percent in 2011, non-distressed prices showed only a small decrease. Until distressed sales in the market recede, we will see continued downward pressure on prices.”
Here again, the company illustrated the weight of distressed sales, noting that when short sale and REO transactions are factored out, the home price decline from April 2006 through December 2011 narrows to 24.0 percent.
While year-over-year home price measurements notched down in 2011, prices are expected to see a slight uptick in 2012, according to Clear Capital.
Should the valuation company’s predictions ring true, it would be the first time since 2006 that the change in annual home prices has landed in positive territory.
In 2012, Clear Capital is forecasting U.S. home prices to show continued stabilization with a slight gain of 0.2 percent across all markets. That would put national home prices near levels not seen since 2001.
Clear Capital’s report shows U.S. prices declined 0.4 percent in December on a quarter-over-quarter basis as markets gave back some of the gains of the summer buying season.
December’s quarterly assessment is the first cooling off after six monthly reports from Clear Capital showed minimal quarterly gains. In fact, the company says the most recent six months of the year saw national home prices flat, posting a decline of just 0.1 percent over the second half of 2011.
The 2.1 percent price decline over 2011 marked the smallest year-end change in either direction since the market gained 1.7 percent in 2006.
Clear Capital expects 2012 to play out much like the last half of 2011, with only a very subtle price change at the national level. A minimal decline in the beginning of the year is expected to turn into a meager gain by year’s end.
Half of the 50 major metro markets included in Clear Capital’s study are expected to post gains for the year, with individual metros experiencing the full gamut of price movement, from double-digit growth to double-digit drops.
Home prices have slid more in the past 5 years than during the great depression, so what’s up now for home prices going forward? Rich DeSalvo has these thoughts on a Fox News interview…
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Consumer expectations for U.S. home prices perked up in December, matching a modest fourth-quarter improvement in the U.S. economy, according to a monthly survey from mortgage market firm Fannie Mae.
For its December reading, Fannie Mae said survey respondents now expect home prices to rise by 0.8% over the next year, up from the 0.2% gain predicted in November.
Views on the direction of the U.S. economy also improved: 22% of respondents indicated a belief that the U.S. economy is on the right track, marking a 6-percentage-point jump from November’s survey.
On personal finances, 40% of respondents said they anticipate their personal financial situation to strengthen over the next year. Fannie Mae noted the response marks the first time since February that a larger share of respondents indicated they expect improved personal finances rather than finances that will remain the same over the next year.
Despite the marked improvement in consumer sentiment, Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan cautioned that consumer attitudes remain at depressed levels, with over two-thirds over respondents in December’s survey still indicating a belief that the U.S. economy is headed in the wrong direction.
The survey is based upon a monthly poll of roughly 1,000 adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.